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[FeelTheRads]

Oh yeah, and I still don't believe there is that market. Not as big as Kickstarter would suggest, at least.

 

[felipepepe]

knows that there is a unattended market full of eager consumers

But one doesn't know. Two years ago, as far as anybody knew, the "hardcore CRPG fanbase" consisted of maybe a thousand pissed off RPGCodex members and not much else.

I don't believe that. The market has always been there and everyone knew it, but it's just not as large & rewarding as others. People prefer to try to be the next Call of Duty and sell gazzilions than to be a "professional Jeff Vogel", making a small but steady living out of a niche market. That's how suits work, no one remembers/promotes the guy that kept steady profits for a decade, just the guy that sold 10 million copies while driving a franchise to the ground in 2 years.

Kickstarter didn't create a new market, it just made it risk-free, then everyone that couldn't/didn't want to risk anything came running back. Just like Mr. Tim Schafer, "reviving" the adventure genre, even though it never really died...

Personally, if I had just had to downsize my company and fire 45 people, I wouldn't have gone there alone.

He was in a extremely saturated market, trying to compete with the big guys doing AAA shit console games, much more expensive and risky than Wasteland 2. Remaking "End of Interplay", you could say.

 

[Lancehead]

knows that there is a unattended market full of eager consumers

But one doesn't know. Two years ago, as far as anybody knew, the "hardcore CRPG fanbase" consisted of maybe a thousand pissed off RPGCodex members and not much else.

Personally, if I had just had to downsize my company and fire 45 people, I wouldn't have gone there alone.

Is that why Fargo apparently put all his eggs in the Kickstarter basket? Without knowing, or at least having a solid idea? I don't think one as experienced as Fargo would do that.

 

[Infinitron]

Is that why Fargo apparently put all his eggs in the Kickstarter basket? Without knowing, or at least having a solid idea? I don't think one as experienced as Fargo would do that.

Well, he didn't do it until Tim Schafer did it first and proved it could work.

 

[Lancehead]

I meant without knowing that there's already a niche market. Because what DFA did was to show a viable (and risk-free) way reach such markets, not discover that there are niche markets.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Last year, somebody on Twitter accused Fargo of not needing money because of this. He replied that being a descendant of that family hadn't helped him much in life other than the bank tellers in Wells Fargo banks being polite to him.

Privilege check http://wikimapia.org/16992912/Brian-Fargo-s-House

Yup. However, you don't become a millionaire by throwing away large sums of money on products without a proven market. Self-funding Wasteland 2 would have made it essentially a vanity project, like those billionaires who bankroll non-profitable soccer teams. Fargo is rich, but he's not that decadent.

In other words, Kickstarter isn't just about getting money, it's also about proving that a market is there. After years of people saying that PC gaming is dead and traditional RPGs are dead, that was not at all obvious.

No.

What did Kickstarter really prove? That there are 60-70,000 people who want to play "old-school" games? We knew that already. ToEE was Atari's best selling game for a while. It sold at least 125,000 copies, although Leon said it sold a lot more than that. So, we always knew that a well-made TB game with proper dialogues can sell at least 50-100k copies (doesn't apply to indie games though due to very low production values), but nobody, including Fargo, was interested in making such a game.

KS doesn't prove anything. It provides cash upfront in exchange for promises, which is a very sweet deal that no publisher will ever agree on.

 

[Infinitron]

What did Kickstarter really prove? That there are 60-70,000 people who want to play "old-school" games? We knew that already. ToEE was Atari's best selling game for a while.

Dude, that was ten years ago.

You seem to have a higher opinion of Obsidian then you have of inXile. Well, this is what people at Obsidian were saying back in 2011: http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/57754-josh-sawyer-at-gdc-europe-2011/?p=1142754

"We can't make games like those anymore because we're competing against Skyrim now. Maybe we can make them for IPad."

 

[Vault Dweller]

Exactly. You can't make this kind of games anymore IF you're competing against Skyrim, if you want to sell a million copies in the first week or two. If you don't...

I posted this before:

http://kotaku.com/5967965/obsidian-almost-made-baldurs-gate-3

"We were talking to Atari, and we started talking, and oh my god this was like the Cherokee Trail of Tears pitch," he said. "They asked in 2007 if we wanted to do Baldur's Gate 3, and I'm like 'Yes, if you guys are serious about it.' They were like, 'What do you mean?' I said, 'If you'll put a real budget behind it: it can't be $10 million, it needs to be $20 million, $25 million. If you really want to do this, then you need to put a real budget behind it. You need to give a budget that BioWare would have to do a Mass Effect or whatever. It has to be a real budget.'"

Atari was hesitant, but they said they'd think about it. A few months later, in early 2008, they came back to Urquhart and gave him the okay, saying they really wanted to get the game done. "They were like 'OK, we really wanna do this, we feel we can get funding, we feel this we feel that, so let's start talking about it,'" Urquhart told me."

Can't help but wonder what would have happened if Feargus asked not for 20-25 mil, but for 4-5? Would Atari have still said no in the end? To what degree developers themselves are to blame for pushing budgets higher, which automatically pushed the expectations higher and forced the developers to "compete with Skyrim"?

 

[Infinitron]

Can't help but wonder what would have happened if Feargus asked not for 20-25 mil, but for 4-5? Would Atari have still said no in the end? To what degree developers themselves are to blame for pushing budgets higher, which automatically pushed the expectations higher and forced the developers to "compete with Skyrim"?

Both developers and publishers believed their games would be "lost in bargain bins" if they didn't crank out a high budget AAA production. Only the strategy genre somehow continued to exist in its own alternate low budget PC-exclusive universe, as thesisko pointed out in that thread.

Were they wrong? Probably. The point is, like it or not, the viability of CRPG projects of this caliber needed to be proved (or rather, re-proved). It was proved by tens of thousands of fans putting their money up front on Kickstarter. Not before.

 

[MicoSelva]

I'm unsure if they revealed the distance that it's impossible to use a sniper rifle - if it's low enough, I really have no complaints.

I agree, if the distance is low enough.
If sniper rifles work like Roguey says (quote below), I don't have a problem with it. Seems fine and realistic enough.

BN said you can't use a sniper rifle at all against any foe in an adjacent square. Anything farther than that is fine, though there's still an accuracy penalty

 

[Jim the Dinosaur]

Btw, Infinitron, in that video Liston posted Cain describes having heard that the "total cost" was ~3 mil, so you'd think that'd include marketing and distribution. But you're right that he lists a lot of freebies in the form of QA people meant for other projects testing the stuff for free and so on, so that might not be counted in the total.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Were they wrong? Probably. The point is, like it or not, the viability of CRPG projects of this caliber needed to be proved (or rather, re-proved). It was proved by tens of thousands of fans putting their money up front on Kickstarter. Not before.

And tens of thousands of fans is less than nothing when you're eying Skyrim- or Diablo-like sales.

Had KS proved that millions of people want these games, it would have been a major revelation. Tens of thousands? It's not news. It's not something that needed to be proved or re-proved. It's the mindset of some developers that changed, not the situation.

 

[Infinitron]

And tens of thousands of fans is less than nothing when you're eying Skyrim- or Diablo-like sales.

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. The developers did not believe they could even get sales from "tens of thousands of fans". They believed they either had to aim high or get nothing at all.

Tens of thousands? It's not news. It's not something that needed to be proved or re-proved. It's the mindset of some developers that changed, not the situation.

If "mindsets of some developers" needed to be changed, then yes, it absolutely was news and something that needed to be reproved. I don't care what needed to be proved to you, Vault Dweller, with all due respect.

 

[TwinkieGorilla]

He lives in a mansion and comes from the family that co-founded Wells Fargo. American Express too.

Well ok then. I did not realize that. Still, that doesn't change my answer that "I think he would like to make money, and in doing so, working with something he enjoys rather than something he does not care much about, yes." It just means that exidium is a bit less naive and idealistic than I thought.

 

[MicoSelva]

Yup. However, you don't become a millionaire by throwing away large sums of money on products without a proven market. Self-funding Wasteland 2 would have made it essentially a vanity project, like those billionaires who bankroll non-profitable soccer teams. Fargo is rich, but he's not that decadent.

Now I feel bad for criticizing Lord British for going to Kickstarter to fund his single player MMO thing.

 

[Vault Dweller]

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. The developers did not believe they could even get sales from "tens of thousands of fans". They believed they either had to aim high or get nothing at all.

Based on what? You can't just say that like it's a fact when there were numerous examples showing non-mainstream RPGs selling a few hundred thousand copies. You can't disregard it just because it doesn't fit your beliefs.

Again, ToEE. Atari offered it to Troika for a reason. They had reasons to believe that it would sell at least a few hundred thousand copies and it did.

http://www.rpgcodex.net/article.php?id=2718

"Atari has released their 10-K report for their fiscal year that ended in March 2004. Interestingly enough, Temple of Elemental Evil was their numero uno PC CRPG during that year. The two expansion packs to Neverwinter Nights fell somewhat below that. The only strictly PC platform game to beat out ToEE in terms of sales was UT2004. It was the numero tres seller of all Atari's PC releases total."

From the early days RPGs were selling less than action games and TB RPGs were selling less than RT RPGs and hack-n-slashers were selling more than RT RPGs. Thus, Diablo sold way more than BG, and BG sold way more than Fallout and PST combined. Nothing changed. Nothing will.

Eventually, the quest for games that would sell 5-10 mil copies has ruined the industry and left a few players able to deliver, leaving others with no choice but to look at games that will never sell two-three million copies (nowadays break-even point) but can sell 400-500k, much like they used to in the olden days. KS merely made that possible by paying cash upfront.

 

[MicoSelva]

What did Kickstarter really prove? That there are 60-70,000 people who want to play "old-school" games? We knew that already.

Kickstarter has proven that there are 70 000 people willing to pay $50 (on average) for a chance of a game for them being made. It's not a huge fanbase, but it is a rock solid one. Confirms once more that while cRPG fans are rare, they can be really (for a lack of a better word) passionate about cRPGs (and are very susceptible to nostalgia trips, but I guess this is connected with an average age of such an RPG player).

Besides, I am kind of glad that Wasteland 2 was never made for a big publisher with AAA money. Because here's how it would look like.

 

[Infinitron]

I don't think you understand what I'm saying. The developers did not believe they could even get sales from "tens of thousands of fans". They believed they either had to aim high or get nothing at all.

Based on what? You can't just say that like it's a fact when there were numerous examples showing non-mainstream RPGs selling a few hundred thousand copies. You can't disregard it just because it doesn't fit your beliefs.

Again, ToEE. Atari offered it to Troika for a reason. They had reasons to believe that it would sell at least a few hundred thousand copies and it did.

*shrug* History, man. In 1992-1993, CRPGs were in a Golden Age. A mere 2 years later, the genre was comatose until Black Isle and BioWare brought it back - proved it was still viable - in 1997-1998. Why? I'm not sure.

I'm not saying something other than Kickstarter could not have proved that traditional CRPGs were viable again, but as it happens, Kickstarter is what proved it.

 

[Drowed]

For me the real question is: would we currently have that many turn-based games being made today - especially counting the ones being done without the use of kickstarter - if not for the successful funding of games like Wasteland 2 and Torment? If "everyone knew that the market existed", then, why now? Why jump on the bandwagon only now when the market was already there, waiting?

 

[tuluse]

Atari was so satisfied with ToEE's sales numbers they immediately offered Troika another contract. Oh, Troika had to do some FPS hybrid that was really outside their expertise.

Well, I'm sure that Troika could have got a contract to make another RPG since ToEE clearly hit it's numbers. Oh, they went out of business because they couldn't secure another job.

I'm sure Fargo's priorities are something like this: 1) Keep company in business and turn a profit, 2) make great RPGs. So yeah, he wasn't going to bet a million bucks on something he didn't know would work. I don't really see how that changes anything.

Eventually, the quest for games that would sell 5-10 mil copies has ruined the industry and left a few players able to deliver, leaving others with no choice but to look at games that will never sell two-three million copies (nowadays break-even point) but can sell 400-500k, much like they used to in the olden days. KS merely made that possible by paying cash upfront.

So then you're expecting AoD to sell 400-500k copies? It's not just a matter of the market existing, but also being able to make a product the market wants.

 

[Vault Dweller]

For me the real question is: would we currently have that many turn-based games being made today - especially counting the ones being done without the use of kickstarter - if not for the successful funding of games like Wasteland 2 and Torment? If "everyone knew that the market existed", then, why now? Why jump on the bandwagon only now when the market was already there, waiting?

Several factors at once:
- the rise of digital distribution, which cut both the need to have a publisher and the upfront cost (packaging, shipping, etc)
- big budget titles becoming too big and too risky. If you need to sell 2 mil copies just to break even, then all is not well in the gaming industry. It forces developers and publishers to revisit the concept of 'smaller games for smaller profit', which is a win for us.
- KS: cash for promises

 

[Lancehead]

Eventually, the quest for games that would sell 5-10 mil copies has ruined the industry and left a few players able to deliver, leaving others with no choice but to look at games that will never sell two-three million copies (nowadays break-even point) but can sell 400-500k, much like they used to in the olden days. KS merely made that possible by paying cash upfront.

So then you're expecting AoD to sell 400-500k copies? It's not just a matter of the market existing, but also being able to make a product the market wants.

Well, the point being made is that Fargo already had a means to make the product: his own money. It would definitely have been risky but not as risky as some suggest, because the market is there for it.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Atari was so satisfied with ToEE's sales numbers they immediately offered Troika another contract. Oh, Troika had to do some FPS hybrid that was really outside their expertise.

a) different teams
b) Atari wanted to do Against the Giants (the next module), but they were afraid that making more DnD games would saturate the market and affect some big DnD game that was in development at the moment. Dragonshard?

Well, I'm sure that Troika could have got a contract to make another RPG since ToEE clearly hit it's numbers. Oh, they went out of business because they couldn't secure another job.

You missed the point. Nobody wanted these kind of numbers before. Everyone was eying mega-hits not slow-cookers.

I'm sure Fargo's priorities are something like this: 1) Keep company in business and turn a profit, 2) make great RPGs. So yeah, he wasn't going to bet a million bucks on something he didn't know would work. I don't really see how that changes anything.

Sure, we can pretend that "RPGs don't sell" literally means "don't sell", but what would be the point?

Eventually, the quest for games that would sell 5-10 mil copies has ruined the industry and left a few players able to deliver, leaving others with no choice but to look at games that will never sell two-three million copies (nowadays break-even point) but can sell 400-500k, much like they used to in the olden days. KS merely made that possible by paying cash upfront.

So then you're expecting AoD to sell 400-500k copies? It's not just a matter of the market existing, but also being able to make a product the market wants.

No, because it's an indie game (I made a disclaimer earlier) and because it's an experiment, but I can guarantee you that Project Eternity will sell 500k easily.

 

[thesisko]

I think it's a combination really. NWN2 was profitable enough for Atari to fund two expansions, but as Nathaniel Chapman states in the thread linked by Infinitron, those kind of numbers are no longer interesting to major publishers.

However, Chapman didn't even think an "old-school" PC RPG would sell NWN2 numbers anymore, as reflected by his comment that had PS:T been released as a brand new game, he, and most RPG fans would dismiss it because it looked old and lacked voice-acting before continuing their 7th playthrough of Skyrim.
If nothing else, Kickstarter has proven him and others with similar beliefs wrong.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Proven wrong how? I'm pretty sure that NWN2 sold over a million copies, not 60-70,000 copies.