l3loodAngel
Proud INTJ
- Joined
- Nov 19, 2010
- Messages
- 1,452
1. Yep. And game development companies (a notoriously difficult market to predict winners in) aren't energy companies. Energy companies build power plants (quantifiable, mostly the same) and operate based on current market prices. 2. Your Liquid Gas is the same as my Liquid Gas - we can reasonably determine the demand - and the price - for that product in a given area. Where-as your First-Person 3d Tactical Shooter is not the same as my First-Person 3d Tactical Shooter.
1. Based on perception. Commodities prices swing by 50% up or down in a period of 6 months although people do feel better about predicting them for some unknown psychological reason.
2. Best paid guys can't it in 6 months and we are talking about 3-4 years. Not trying go have an argument for the sake of argument, but you have to be God right now to get it right with so many developments going on.
2. Not that they need it. The faster the loan is repaid the better. It takes a company 3-4 years to develop a game. Now if it would take additional three years to repay the loan, it would mean that the loan period would be longer by 3 years. Then the interest would kill you. Now games also have a feature what statisticians would call the long tail. The games especially RPG's are sold through time, but at the small quantities. It also add to the source of revenue.
3. RTS, RPG, Adventure will likely have it, while FPS, MMO and sports would be unlikely to have it.But it's all speculation. 3. There are just as many games that don't have any long-tail - they just disappear from existence. 4. Where-as I can find a guy who'll happily tell you what the price of Gas will be in 6 years from now, and what the long-term trend for demand is. Now while I might be able to do that for the "computer games market" as a whole, I can't do that for your specific computer game.
4. You are oversimplifying it. If I could do that I would be earning money like this mom http://cnbc51news.com/. There are so many development's in the industry right now and the industries for commodities are inter linked together. Nat Gas can be substituted by Shale gas or sometimes by coal for generation of electricity. Demand shift to China and growth of green electricity usage. Carbon emission credits, their costs and subsidizing of Green electricity sources.