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Jeff Vogel Soapbox Thread
- Thread starter Humanity has risen!
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Ludo Lense
Self-Ejected
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V_K
Arcane
LundB
Mistakes were made.
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DarkUnderlord are we seriously still doing this?
This is a relatively small example, but it's only the most recent in a rather long chain of them. It's ridiculous that this is still happening.
What next, merging all threads about Avellone into a single abomination?
This is a relatively small example, but it's only the most recent in a rather long chain of them. It's ridiculous that this is still happening.
What next, merging all threads about Avellone into a single abomination?
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Mods. Mods never change...
- Joined
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Mods. Mods never change.
The Mods merged threads in GD to show their wealth and power. Infinitron built a mega-thread out of his lust for efficiency and order. JarlFrank shaped a battered RPG Discussion Forum into a Site Feedback whine-a-thon.
But mods never change.
In the 21st century, Mods merged threads about Wasteland 2 and Project Eternity. Only this time, the spoils of merging were also its weapons: Order and Butthurt. For these resources, Crispy would take on DU in GD, Jaesun would annex RPG Discussions into General Gaming, and the mods of Politics would dissolve into quarreling, bickering nation-states, bent on controlling all the butthurt in the Codex.
In 2015, the storm of butthurt had come again. In two brief hours, most of the threads were merged beyond recognition. And from the ashes of extreme butthurt, a new Codex would struggle to arise.
A few were able to reach the relative safety of the only forum the mods dared not touch. Your family was part of that group that entered Prosperland. Imprisoned safely behind the large Forum index link, buried under a mountain of other forums, a generation has lived without the pain of having their threads merged.
Life in Prosperland is about to change.
The Mods merged threads in GD to show their wealth and power. Infinitron built a mega-thread out of his lust for efficiency and order. JarlFrank shaped a battered RPG Discussion Forum into a Site Feedback whine-a-thon.
But mods never change.
In the 21st century, Mods merged threads about Wasteland 2 and Project Eternity. Only this time, the spoils of merging were also its weapons: Order and Butthurt. For these resources, Crispy would take on DU in GD, Jaesun would annex RPG Discussions into General Gaming, and the mods of Politics would dissolve into quarreling, bickering nation-states, bent on controlling all the butthurt in the Codex.
In 2015, the storm of butthurt had come again. In two brief hours, most of the threads were merged beyond recognition. And from the ashes of extreme butthurt, a new Codex would struggle to arise.
A few were able to reach the relative safety of the only forum the mods dared not touch. Your family was part of that group that entered Prosperland. Imprisoned safely behind the large Forum index link, buried under a mountain of other forums, a generation has lived without the pain of having their threads merged.
Life in Prosperland is about to change.
The one thing I've learned about being a moderator here is that generally you're fucked if you do and you're fucked if you don't.
So you might as well do and get fucked.
So you might as well do and get fucked.
Ludo Lense
Self-Ejected
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This can only end in entertaining ways.
a cut of domestic sheep prime
Guest
Lampchop for rpgcodex moderator.
Lampchop will put the kibosh on the megathread menace.
Vote Lambchop
Paid for by the friends of Lambchop.
I am Lambchop and I approve this message.
Lampchop will put the kibosh on the megathread menace.
Vote Lambchop
Paid for by the friends of Lambchop.
I am Lambchop and I approve this message.
Ninjerk
Arcane
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Reported for brofist harvesti- oh, it's just The Fed.
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In a groundbreaking experimental procedure, this megathread has been unmerged. Thank you for your participation.
a cut of domestic sheep prime
Guest
like splitting Siamese twins.
Excidium II
Self-Ejected
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Vogel weighs in on the Indiepocalypse: jeff-vogel.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-indie-bubble-revisited-or-are-we.html
The Indie Bubble Revisited (or, Are We All Totally-Doomed, or Just Regular-Doomed?)
I hate writing this, because the situation is ugly, and it feels like I'm just piling on. I'll try to add something new to the discussion.
Yeah, yeah, I know. Another stupid article about the Indie Bubble, or the #indiepocalypse, or whatever dumb thing they’re calling it today.
It’s starting to get a little old. I did my part kicking off this whole discussion with my Indie Bubble article about a year ago. It's probably the most widely read thing I've ever written. Luminaries of the game industry read it. Many articles referenced it. Some people hated it, though a lot of these seemed to do so not because it was wrong but because they wanted it to be wrong.
It’s been talked about a lot since then. I’ve read a million articles and tweets and critiques by established indie devs who are eager to let you know that if you don’t create an eternal classic and market it 27 hours every day you suck and deserve to fail. (I’m know ... I’m exaggerating. Some days, it doesn’t feel like it.)
But I’m not gunning for ten million dollars, and I doubt most young game devs are either. We just want to earn pizza and housing money making our happy toys. We know that a few people can make a killing. We just want to know if we can make a living.
Anyway, it’s been a year, and I’d like to check in. Try to inject some reality, maybe a solid prediction or two. It seems like half of the game industry is too optimistic and the other half too lost to despair. Instead, all we need to do is look around and see a bit of what the Game Industry is like. What it was like before the bubble, and what it is reverting to being like again.
By the way, I don't want to turn this into an ugly class thing, but ... If you already have a massive hit, OF COURSE everything looks great.
A Bit Of Truth, and Then You Can Ignore the Rest of This
Some have described me as some sort of weirdo Indie Dev Angel of Death, forecasting the apocalypse. This is not what I said in my article. All I said was that, after several exuberant years, the business of writing indie games was returning to normal.
And what is normal? Here's the big take-away! Writing games for cash is a harsh, unforgiving affair. Success is rare and failure common, instead of the other way around. If an indie game fails, it shouldn’t surprise you. Success should surprise you.All I said was that, in the future, this hard reality will (and must) reassert itself.
Please take a moment to reread the previous paragraph. Then don’t read the rest of this mess. All that us Doomsayers are saying is that the simple reality in the previous paragraph is reasserting itself. There’s is an #indiepocalypse, kind of. It’s a painful return to the simple harshness of the gaming biz, same as it always was.
But if you’re still reading, since we're all in the future now, I wanted to revisit my original piece and see if I was accurate.
So let us look, bravely, eyes open and clear, at the situation as it exists. Let's figure out where we're going, and let's see if we can all find a way to avoid flying shrapnel.
Time for a little cheering-up break. Thanks, Twilight Sparkle! Friendship IS magic!
Now I Prove I Was Right
How can I prove that I was right, that the happy days of easy money are gone, and that we indie devs are going to have to hustle and scrape and control our budgets like in the musty olde shareware days?
Once, I dreaded writing this article. I feared having to dig up tales ofhigh profile indie flops. I planned to rely on imperfect measures, like the increasing number of games forced to rely on massive discounts and being in bundles a scant 3-5 months after release. I thought I'd need to scrape together what sales figures I could find to show that, yes, titles that once would have been massive hits out of the gate will struggle simply to break even.
Now I don't need to do any of that. I have been given manna from Blog Writer Heaven: SteamSpy.
Aren't you sick of seeing this chart? (Full size original here.) I know I am.
The Mysterious Miracle of SteamSpy
SteamSpy is a new web site that uses online data mining, secret algorithms, and Magic to come up with weirdly accurate estimates of how many titles games on Steam have sold. Based on my own sales and what I've heard from other indie devs, its numbers are surprisingly on the nose.
It's not as good for figuring out how much actual money a game has made. SteamSpy counts sales, not how much money a sale was actually for. The site can't tell whether sales were at full price or from sales or bundles or whatever. However, if a game hasn't yet been in any bundles or big sales, it's good at estimating how much the game has earned. It's pretty damn cool.
That being said, please consult the chart above.
One heavily disputed claim in my original article was that most people have only a constant amount they will spend on video games. Thus, since so many more titles are coming out, earnings will go way down.
This struck me as a pretty uncontroversial statement, immediately understood by anyone who knows anything about economics or who has had to make a family budget. If you release 10x as many games, people won't start spending 10x as much on games, as they also need to buy food.
SteamSpy's chart says this is pretty much exactly what happened. Number of games shot up. Money earned per game went way down. Yes, there are still hits, and they generally earned it. It's the invisible majority of developers that are drifting into oblivion in silence.
So now I'm going to make some predictions, and I hope, in a year, that I have been proven wrong. I really do.
Another chart everyone is sick of: Steam releases per month. Ignore the dumb trend line and just look at the dots. The pretty, pretty dots.
Prediction One: More People Need To Abandon Their Dreams.
As a bonus, there is another chart: Steam Releases per month. There's no guesswork here. To know the number of new releases, you just have to go to Steam and count them. The numbers are still shooting up, as hopeful, talented young devs chase the gold rush.
Expect earnings for most developers to keep going down for a while. I don't take any satisfaction in this. I love indie development, and, as I said in the previous article, I WANT to be proven wrong. (Remember, this is my day job too.) Yet, these numbers are pretty compelling, and they speak of a rough road ahead.
Yeah, yeah. You’re probably sick to DEATH of hearing that. LOTS of indie devs say it. What nobody talks about is exactly what that rough road will look like. Who will get hurt, and how? Here’s a guess:
Basically, solid, competently made games that would have made a modest profit 10 years ago or 10 years from now will just flop. Really ground-breaking titles will do fine, of course. It’s just that, in a normal environment, you shouldn’t need to be absolutely unique and invent a new genre or whatever to make money.
(Oh, by the way? If an otherwise solid product falls to huge competition, there's no need to pile on further by saying, "You just sucked. Indies are whiners. You just want a trophy for showing up. Loser. LRN2PLAYN00B!" It really aggravates me when profitable indie devs do this. Show some humility. You just write indie games, for God's sake. Just because your game sold well doesn't make you Jesus.)
This is REALLY important: After the hard times to come, yes, wages will be lower than they were. It will be harder to get rich, but it'll also be totally possible to scrape by a nice, middle-class existence writing competent games in underserved genres.
All it will take is enough companies dying to have a few genres be underserved again. This process will be HARD. This is the so-called #indiepocalypse, right here.
To make a living without a monster hit, however, will require some reality acceptance ...
Yeah, pretty much. I suggest writing your first game in your spare, non-job time. Yes, I know this sucks. I've been there, man.
Prediction Two: Ambitions Will Grow More Modest. Budgets Will Be Cut.
My blog is called the Bottom Feeder, because that is what I am. I am a small, fast, nimble developer, dashing in to grab the scraps the big boys leave behind. I write my games on tight schedules with modest budgets. When I can use cheap, licensed sound and graphics, I do so with enthusiasm.
As a result, our business has done well for over 20 years.
I've watched the ramping up of indie budgets and ambitions over the last few years with fascination. Having a real team and professional assets (graphics, sound, etc) can result in a very successful game. However, the more you spend, the greater the risk. Sometimes, I suspect my fellow developers have lost the ability to make hard choices about what luxuries are worth paying for and what aren't.
Indie developers tend to want nothing less than custom graphics and music of the highest quality, everything done completely fresh for each game. Sometimes, licensing a piece of music for cheap can do just as well, with far less overhead to earn back in sales.
If your game needs voicework (Does it? Does it, really?), there are a multitude of actors who can do well for reasonable rates. Instead, I've seen several developers hire big name actors. I sincerely doubt this generates enough extra sales to justify the expense and trouble.
Team sizes. Holy cripes, but teams are big! I never would have imagined that a 10+ person indie game team would seem like a viable option. Never forget that you can make remarkable stuff with two people (one coder, one artist, buy what assets you have to online for cheap).
And as for long development times, yes, I know. Art happens on its own schedule and shouldn't be rushed. Yet, discipline is still necessary. It's way easier to stay in business when you have a new game every two years than every four. If you're spending 5-7 years to make an indie game, I hope you were already rich when you started.
Amazingly, some indie devs hire actual consultants, the greatest of all cash sponges for confused businesses with too much money. The highest profile recent indie failure, Tale of Tales, hired an expensive consultancy team to help out. I can guarantee that it wasn't worth it.
As things get tougher, the indie business will need to focus more on the 'Business' part. This is all to the good.
Look at the bright side. If you never get famous, nobody will notice when you have your nervous breakdown on Twitter.
Prediction Three: "PR Better" Will Stop Being the Answer To Everything.
Lower budgets mean you can sell fewer copies of your game and still stay in business. If you operate on a low enough budget, you don't need a huge PR breakthrough to succeed.
I believe a really good game, word of mouth marketing, and patience can still be enough to generate a profitable product. It’s a slow, hard road, but this is still a tough industry. It’s still was easier than it used to be, as the number of outlets for word-of-mouth and cheap marketing have gone way up since I started. If I’m wrong, we have an even more serious problem than we thought.
This is because the PR situation is becoming intolerable. I am so sick of indie devs who already made it saying, "You must spend huge resources on PR. If you don't, you deserve to fail." This is mean, lazy, and utterly neglectful of the reality now.
Look. As I write this, Pax Prime is going on. There are OVER ONE HUNDRED indie games showing at PAX. These are young, ambitious developers who are expending huge amounts of time, cash, and energy doing what their elders told them to do. For most of them, the effort will be wasted.
This isn't their fault. The gaming press only has so much bandwidth. It can and will only cover so many games, and most of those resources will go to AAA titles. They simply can't give exposure to over 100 games. Even if they could, gamers don't have the time or mental bandwidth to process so much input.
I've heard that the press will only cover you if you go directly to them in person (expensive, time-consuming). Simple email contacts (fast, inexpensive) won't do. I'm starting to believe it. The recent indie game N++ hardly got any coverage, and this is the sequel to the N series, one of the best-known, seminal series of the indie boom.
And yet, even if they had gone to cons and kissed the ring, I doubt it would have helped. Over 100 indie games on display. You can't fight that math.
(I’m assuming here that the gaming press is a pure, neutral meritocracy. If you believe that the press occasionally gives a huge amount of press to a mediocre title for unrelated reasons, well, the problem becomes even more dire.)
This is also assuming, of course, that conventional press even matters anymore. There are real doubts on that score. Reviews in old-school magazines and web sites don’t bump my sales near as much as they used to.
I believe that, of necessity, developers will rediscover building businesses the old-fashioned way. Not by getting a smash hit overnight, but slowly, game by game, building a genuine fan base that will carry them through good times and bad, counting on quality and word-of-mouth PR to get the word out there. As the saying goes, it takes ten years to make an overnight success.
It's slow and difficult. Really difficult. It may not even be possible. You’ll have to forgive me for thinking it’s possible, as it’s the only thing that enables me to get out of bed some mornings.
Pictured: The Game Industry in 2016. (Artist's conception.)
Prediction Four: Indie Gaming Will Survive.
Despite all this, I'm not a doomsayer. Indie gaming will survive. Gamers want us to survive, and the quality of our work is fantastic. I rarely have more fun than when I buy a Humble Bundle and try out 10 of the games these ambitious young people are making.
These new developers are driven, smart, and admirable. They are better than me, and I want them to get rich. Some of them even will.
Nobody knows what is going to happen. There are a ton of unsolved problems (like pricing and efficient marketing). It will be hard to succeed. Like it has almost always been, and will almost always be.
My advice for you personally? It's the same advice I'd give to anyone planning to go into a highly competitive artistic field: Don't start writing indie games unless you couldn't possibly be happy doing any other job.
I hope you're not a broken toy like me, driven by a mad compulsion to make these peculiar, garish, little works of art. But if you are, welcome aboard. I am rooting for you.
You're still reading this? What's WRONG with you? Why didn't you just read 200 words, make up some stupid opinion I didn't say, and attack me for it in a Gamasutra article? You know, like everyone else?
What I Am Going To Do
The same thing I've always done. Lay low. Work fast and cheap. I'll count on my awesome loyal fans to see me through, and I'll do my best to make work worthy of their loyalty.
My games are $20. To stay in business, I need to sell, say, a minimum of 6000 full price copies of each new game. Add on bundles, Steam sales, etc, and it's a good living. For me, now, it's an entirely attainable goal. If you care, you can follow how I'm doing on SteamSpy.
I know life is a bummer now, but indie games are just too cool to die. If you write them, as a pro or hobbyist, be proud.
Well, better get back to work. I have two weeks to write four weeks’ work of dialogue. Time to hop to it.
###
Please let me know how much I suck on my Twitter.
Last edited:
Lhynn
Arcane
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interesting article about shit we already knew.
Also dude needs to stop complaining and start making good games again. How many years has it been since geneforge?
Why doesnt he deny ever having made avernum and the other embarrasing shit and goes back to his exile engine, which even today is perfectly fine and 10 steps ahead of any of the indie garbage we see released lately.
Also dude needs to stop complaining and start making good games again. How many years has it been since geneforge?
Why doesnt he deny ever having made avernum and the other embarrasing shit and goes back to his exile engine, which even today is perfectly fine and 10 steps ahead of any of the indie garbage we see released lately.
Explorerbc
Arcane
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- Nov 22, 2012
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- 1,172
Mustawd
Guest
Meh. I'm sure he'll do what 90% of idiots do with too much money: spend it on drugs and hookers. Either that or bad investments.
Excidium II
Self-Ejected
Last I heard he was making a new programming language.
Gord
Arcane
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- Feb 16, 2011
- Messages
- 7,049
Vogel is not the one complaining here, he's just giving excuses why he's taking 0 risk and reusing the same stuff each iteration.
But he's in a somewhat comfortable position. He has found his niche and a bunch of "loyal fans" that keep him afloat, something that won't work for the majority of indies out there.
Mustawd
Guest
True. Not sure why so many people hate on him. He's kind of got it made. I mean...let's be honest. He can still make remakes 15 years from now and people (AKA me) will still buy them. Dunno. Something about the Avernum games just makes me want to buy them. The fact that he reuses the same engine just makes me want to buy more.
It's what I wish the Fallout series was like. More of the same goodness and on the same engine. Over and over and over and over....wait...what was I saying? Oh yeah...
pippin
Guest
It does not work because they are not doing that. A key element of project management is finding your audience. "Gamers" won't do it. "Gamers who like turn based combat and old school rpg mechanics" is the way to go. "Gamers who like 2d platformers made between 1985 and 1996" is also a good thing. "Gamers who want to feel happy they are sjws" could be acceptable as well, but "gamers", plain and simple, is not enough because that does not aim at a public which can be traced and followed, in terms of sales and preferences. And this is like that because you must make a product with a certain definition and a number of characteristics which will set it apart from everything else. That's why the current indie scene is just a blob of pixels and pseudo retro art, but not real quality.
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