Decline PS4 wins the console war against XboxONE, yet it is a hollow victory as Consolesdämmerung is upon us

[DeepOcean]

What attracts a female to the codex?

Our modern stances on social equality issues, obviously.

Because we are a bunch of nerd try hards that like to act tough on internet?

 

[Cowboy Moment]

So, almost as many sales as there are concurrent users on Steam on a weekday evening.

Early days.

PS2 sold over 120 000 000 IIRC, so don't think steam will compare even if this gen is a moderate success.

Over 150 million over its lifetime, and it's unlikely any console will ever top that. PS3 and XboX360 are both at ~80 million, and are unlikely to go much higher given their current monthly sales. PS4 will be lucky to hit even that, frankly, given how the casual wing of console peasantry is under siege by mobile.

Also, for consoles these are all "shipped" numbers, they count replacement machines (of which there were legion for the early 360 models for example), as well as people who just buy one and shelve it after a few months. In contrast, Steam stats count users who are actively buying/playing games.

 

[J_C]

In contrast, Steam stats count users who are actively buying/playing games.

I ask again. So?

You mean there are more gaming PCs in the world than nex gen consoles, which were relesed only 4 months ago? What a revelation!

 

[Cowboy Moment]

Just putting things into perspective. No need to be so upset over consoles, Matt.

 

[Infinitron]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/09/console-crisis/

The Console Market Is In Crisis
Posted yesterday by Natasha Lomas (@riptari)

A few days ago Sony announced it has now sold a total of 6 million PlayStation 4 consoles. Microsoft’s next-gen equivalent, the Xbox One, has likely racked up sales of around 4 million so far. Both flagship consoles were released around the same time in late November last year, in time for the 2013 holiday season. And both companies have been shouting loudly about who’s beating whom for cumulative console and games sales globally and in key markets like the U.S.

On the cumulative console sales score at least, Sony’s PS4 appears to be edging out the Xbone, for now.

The thing is neither of these new generation console flagships is selling very well when compared with previous generations of flagship consoles. The console market appears to be shrinking significantly — and that’s evidently having a knock-on impact on games studios and game development. The big games studios don’t exclusively develop for a single platform, after all, so the health of the entire market is key to keeping games studios in business.

Crunching the numbers on sales of the new generation of consoles is a little tricky, as console makers aren’t as keen as they used to be about releasing data. That reticence itself is rather telling. But it’s possible to paint a fuller picture by looking at North American console sales data leaked by market researcher NPD’s subscribers — data that’s finding its way onto games industry forums.

Here’s NPD’s official data on console market sales in North America for January 2007 – i.e. after the last generation of flagship consoles launched back in the 2006 holiday season:

Wii: 436,000
360: 294,000
PS3: 244,000
PS2: 299,000
NDS: 239,000
PSP: 211,000
GBA: 179,000
GC: 34,000

Add those numbers up and the total sales figure is just shy of 2 million.

Now here’s an equivalent list of sales for consoles this January (not an official list, since as noted above much of this data is not being officially released, but rather these figures are drawn from leaked NPD subscriber data – with further caveats being that NPD doesn’t like subscribers leaking its data so releases slightly different figures to try to identify leakers, hence the lack of concrete numbers for certain consoles):

PS4: 271,000
XB1: 141,000
3DS: ~97,000
PS3: ~53,500
Wii U: ~49,000
360: ~48,500
Vita: ~17,000

Add the January 2014 figures up and the tally is closer to 700,000. So that’s 2 million vs. ~700K — a very big market contraction, even if some of those sales figures are underestimates.

The Wii U has certainly flopped – but, taken as a whole, the console market is generally not shipping the numbers it once was. The Xbox One’s sales look especially bad compared to the previous gen Xbox 360. But even the PS2 was selling more units than the PS4 at the equivalent point in its sales cycle.

It’s been noted elsewhere that total industry sales (hardware and software) in January 2014 were down 1 percent year-over-year – and that in a year when two new flagship consoles have just been released vs the low bar set by consoles sales last year with no such flagship hardware releases to accelerate games sales. So again, not exactly a sign of a healthy market overall.

The PS4/XB1 is the first generation to have technology that is worse than what is already out there.

And before you say “yes but the PS4 didn’t even launch in its home market till late February,” early sales indications from Japan aren’t great either. In its second week the PS4 sold just 65,685 units, according to Japanese market researcher Media Create. That’s less than week-two sales of the PS Vita (72,479) and far less than the second week performance of the (now considered a flop) Wii U (130,653).

For a shiny new system just landed in its home market PS4 sales aren’t exactly knocking it out the park in Japan either.

One thing is certain: the cost of developing flagship console games titles continues to rise. And with fewer consoles being sold than previous generations that’s a circle that’s looking increasingly tough to square.

Even big name games studios are throwing in the towel – last year’s well-reviewed Bioshock Infinite title sold some 4 million units but that evidently wasn’t enough to keep Irrational Games in business. And that’s just one example. (See also this sobering list of games studios that have been shuttered since 2006, compiled by a member of the NeoGAF forum.)

Whatever the exact truth of the new generation of consoles sales – and it is still certainly early days for the PS4 and Xbone – it looks pretty clear that the console market overall has a big problem: aka the C-word, market contraction.

It’s not just new flagships failing to sell as well as new consoles used to; previous generations of consoles are evidently not sustaining long-tail sales as once they did either. Sales of the PS3/360/Wii are declining at an alarming rate compared to the transition from the prior outgoing platforms (PS2/GC). Those consoles stuck around selling in larger numbers for longer than their current-gen equivalents so there’s a wider market collapse going on.

Why the shrinking console market? There are likely multiple factors in play here. Not least increased gaming competition from mobile devices. And, well, increased competition for free time in general. Since 2007 mobile apps have taken off, social networking has gone mainstream, mobile gaming has spawned huge casual gamer franchises like Angry Birds and Candy Crush and the rest, and mobile messaging has gone massively over-the-top to make IMing your buddies free and easy (and yet another pull on free time).

Another problem console makers are facing is rival devices’ faster refresh cycles. Mobile devices typically get upgraded with shiny new hardware every year. While, from the other side, top-of-the-range PC hardware is now outperforming console hardware – so really hardcore gamers looking for the best in class gaming experience (at least from a a graphical fidelity/frame-rate point of view) are actually better off with a high end gaming PC than the current console flagships.

Whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.

As one veteran games developer, who has worked in the industry for more than a decade and who pointed me in the direction of the leaked NPD data, put it: “The PS4/XB1 is the first generation to have technology that is worse than what is already out there. There are 2+ year old GPUs that outperform these boxes, and even budget GPUs releasing now in the $150 range outclass these machines. If you buy the highest end GPU on the market now, you have almost 3x the performance of these machines, and we are at the start of the generation. This is unprecedented.

“This means whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.”

Yet another troubling reality for consoles — which is really a symptom of an ailing ecosystem — is dwindling choice of games titles. The days of a wide range of console experiences – from niche small games, through a diverse array of mid-sized titles, up to the flagship triple A blockbuster titles – are gone.

The industry has condensed games development to focus on blockbuster titles – likely because of the rising costs of development requiring a commensurately sizeable pay-off at the end — and even those blockbusters are diminishing in quantity, as there are fewer big games companies left to make these increasingly expensive titles. It’s now a couple of big titles per company per year – titles that are also mostly sequels or proven formula games, rather than something new.

The result: less choice for console gamers – ergo, less incentive to buy a console in the first place. If there’s only a handful of exclusive titles to push you to buy a console, only hardcore fanboys are going to shell out the $400/$500 required to own new generation hardware. That doesn’t sound like a sustainable market.

If you look at cumulative console sales for the last generation of home gaming boxes, it’s clear how far the current gen has to go just to remain flat. The Wii sold 100 million+, while the 360 and PS3 sold ~80 million apiece — making a total of ~260 million home consoles.

At this relatively early stage the new generation stacks up as follows: Wii U at 6 million, XB1 at ~4 million and PS4 at 6 million: a total of ~16 million. So only around 244 million to go — just to perform as well as the last generation. But with game budgets increasing a flat console market isn’t a good thing. This new generation needs to be outselling the last, not looking like it’s going to have a really tough time shipping the same.

One more troubling recent development: Sony Santa Monica – the PS4 maker’s flagship North American studio — recently announced staff cuts of (purportedly) almost a quarter of the studio’s workforce. It also reportedly canned a major PS4 title it had in development.

And that’s Sony wielding the axe.

The company also just parted ways with its two-decade veteran U.S. PlayStation chief Jack Tretton — literally just last week.

To spell it out using the developer’s words again: “If the platform holder is already canceling projects (and worse, laying off development staff), then people should be looking over their shoulders.”

The big question hanging over the dedicated gaming machine is this: Is the current-generation market contraction something that can be overcome — or does it signify a more fundamental console category crisis?

​

 

[WhiskeyWolf]

Infinitron Is the title dramatic enough now?

 

[skuphundaku]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/09/console-crisis/

Schadenfreude is so sweet!

 

[felipepepe]

PC gaming is dead, I tell you.

BTW, the fanboys drama on the comments is great.

 

[Echo Mirage]

“This means whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.”

My only question is. Does this mean we will see a renewed focus of the PC becoming the primary platform for development while companies see if this console generation will sink or swim. Or does it mean we will just be getting a few more effects and baubles ?.

My guess is baubles, lots of baubles. Enough baubles to make it look like christmas for the next five or so years.

 

[Morgoth]

Consoles died the moment they became a poor-man's PC. They are now irrelevant in the face of falling PC/electronics prices and don't have the universality of a PC (no old-gen/next-gen disparity. Just seamless transitions).

 

[felipepepe]

Best thing it can happen to us is the market crashing to a point where no exlusives remain and old titles get ported and re-released on PC.

 

[evdk]

“This means whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.”

My only question is. Does this mean we will see a renewed focus of the PC becoming the primary platform for development

My only question is: do we want that to happen?

 

[Xor]

The article is wrong about why the collapse is happening. For one, the guy doesn't even mention economic factors when comparing the two generations - people are just spending less money now than they were in 2007. For another, tablets and smartphones compete with handheld consoles, while the PS4 and XBO are competing with the PC. Also, PCs have always been better than consoles on launch at the high end. The only real difference now is that mid and high end PC components are getting cheaper while the consoles keep getting more expensive.

If the console makers want to save their market from collapse, they should take a page from Nintendo's book and start focusing on expanding past the traditional 'hardcore' gamer market, and let that demographic move back to PCs. The Wii's audience didn't disappear, they're just waiting for the right kind of games to come along and they'll be back en masse.

 

[Drax]

This makes me happy and fluffy.

 

[DraQ]

“This means whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.”

My only question is. Does this mean we will see a renewed focus of the PC becoming the primary platform for development while companies see if this console generation will sink or swim. Or does it mean we will just be getting a few more effects and baubles ?.

My guess is baubles, lots of baubles. Enough baubles to make it look like christmas for the next five or so years.

Good enough.

Especially given inflated development costs paving way for AAAgnarok.

 

[DragoFireheart]

ITZ almost here!

 

[DraQ]

“This means whilst the casuals are moving to mobile/web, the high end enthusiasts are moving to PC where games are better looking. The traditional consoles are caught in a pincer movement.”

My only question is. Does this mean we will see a renewed focus of the PC becoming the primary platform for development

My only question is: do we want that to happen?

At the very least we will get no butchered ports and shitty multiplatform compromises. Incline compared to the current situation.

 

[Azalin]

The article is wrong about why the collapse is happening. For one, the guy doesn't even mention economic factors when comparing the two generations - people are just spending less money now than they were in 2007. For another, tablets and smartphones compete with handheld consoles, while the PS4 and XBO are competing with the PC. Also, PCs have always been better than consoles on launch at the high end. The only real difference now is that mid and high end PC components are getting cheaper while the consoles keep getting more expensive.

If the console makers want to save their market from collapse, they should take a page from Nintendo's book and start focusing on expanding past the traditional 'hardcore' gamer market, and let that demographic move back to PCs. The Wii's audience didn't disappear, they're just waiting for the right kind of games to come along and they'll be back en masse.

I believe the Wii's audience which were mostnly non-hardcore/casual gamers are moving to smartphones/tablets,wymmin are playing Candy Crush Saga on their tablets now instead of jumping in front of their tv's for Wii Sports

 

[DeepOcean]

That is what the idiots that thought that homogenizing all the games and turning them into the same cinematic thing and shitting out sequels after sequels was a good idea get. Just look to the games released for Xbone and PS4 so far, the same old moron proof shit with not so much better graphics. Almost all them are sequels or sequels to other games but with a different name. That old shitty excuse of PC being terrible expensive in relation to consoles doesn't fly when this generation already started really outdated.

The AAA idiots chased the dudebros and general retards legion in hoping of them subsidizing their terrible inefficient model, now that they reached too big to fail status, they are desperate that the retard legion isn't enough to keep them afloat but to keep the retard legion engaged they need to continue selling them simplistic and easy games with better and better visuals as they don't like gamming, they just like playing movies but spectacle intensive games are terribly expensive to the point of the whole audience for them not being enough. They suddenly discovered that new ips are important as people are starting to abandon old franchises out of fatigue but guess what? They have none after denying for years the chance of one appearing.

They chased the "every AAA game should be a lowest common denominator blockbuster dream." and that is causing them serious problems now, that is ironic.

 

[DraQ]

That is what the idiots that thought that homogenizing all the games and turning them into the same cinematic thing and shitting out sequels after sequels was a good idea get. Just look to the games released for Xbone and PS4 so far, the same old moron proof shit with not so much better graphics. Almost all them are sequels or sequels to other games but with a different name. That old shitty excuse of PC being terrible expensive in relation to consoles doesn't fly when this generation already started really outdated.

The AAA idiots chased the dudebros and general retards legion in hoping of them subsidizing their terrible inefficient model, now that they reached too big to fail status, they are desperate that the retard legion isn't enough to keep them afloat but to keep the retard legion engaged they need to continue selling them simplistic and easy games with better and better visuals as they don't like gamming, they just like playing movies but spectacle intensive games are terribly expensive to the point of the whole audience for them not being enough. They suddenly discovered that new ips are important as people are starting to abandon old franchises out of fatigue but guess what? They have none after denying for years the chance of one appearing.

They chased the "every AAA game should be a lowest common denominator blockbuster dream." and that is causing them serious problems now, that is ironic.

Isn't Schadenfreude just intoxicating?

 

[Xor]

The article is wrong about why the collapse is happening. For one, the guy doesn't even mention economic factors when comparing the two generations - people are just spending less money now than they were in 2007. For another, tablets and smartphones compete with handheld consoles, while the PS4 and XBO are competing with the PC. Also, PCs have always been better than consoles on launch at the high end. The only real difference now is that mid and high end PC components are getting cheaper while the consoles keep getting more expensive.

If the console makers want to save their market from collapse, they should take a page from Nintendo's book and start focusing on expanding past the traditional 'hardcore' gamer market, and let that demographic move back to PCs. The Wii's audience didn't disappear, they're just waiting for the right kind of games to come along and they'll be back en masse.

I believe the Wii's audience which were mostnly non-hardcore/casual gamers are moving to smartphones/tablets,wymmin are playing Candy Crush Saga on their tablets now instead of jumping in front of their tv's for Wii Sports

That seems to be the common excuse people like to throw around, but I don't think so. The Wii and DS both appealed to more or less the same audience and they managed to coexist without issue. The reason the audience didn't transition to the next generation of consoles is because of a lack of games targeting them combined with the high cost of the new consoles, not because of competition from mobile games.

 

[Angthoron]

The PS4/XB1 is the first generation to have technology that is worse than what is already out there.

hahaohwow.jpg

Lol, ya, ok.

 

[Infinitron]

The PS4/XB1 is the first generation to have technology that is worse than what is already out there.

hahaohwow.jpg

Lol, ya, ok.

Yeah, that's not true, but the developer quote in the article says something to the tune of "this is the first generation where the technology is worse than what's already out there and very affordable and widespread", which might be true.

 

[Angthoron]

The PS4/XB1 is the first generation to have technology that is worse than what is already out there.

hahaohwow.jpg

Lol, ya, ok.

Yeah, that's not true, but the developer quote in the article says something to the tune of "this is the first generation where the technology is worse than what's already out there and very affordable and widespread", which might be true.

Dunno man, there's also the "While, from the other side, top-of-the-range PC hardware is now outperforming console hardware"(emphasis added) line, which sort of seems to say that yeah, holy shit, suddenly high-end PC gaming is better than it ever was compared to the God's gift that is the Console.

Suppose that it's closer to midrange than the previous generation was price-wise, but it wasn't exactly a hard job to match XB360's stats at launch anyway, and 8-core of PS3 ended up more of an exclusivity gimmick than anything truly ground-breaking.

 

[Wilian]

To be fair, Xbox360 had on it's release and for couple weeks after probably the strongest GPU of the market in it before the then next gen AMD/NVidia shipped out, outshining that crap even on mid-tiers. But dat 256mb RAM for real use. Hurrrr.