PoE Sales Analysis Thread

[Irenaeus]

Keep in mind there are apparently ~120K backers, and as a backer, I bought 15 extra copies of the game on the backer website that don't count as sales. I'm sure lots of others did stuff like that too.

 

[Perkel]

So you admit PoE isn't the worst RPG ever.

Moreover New Vegas is #8 on the list http://www.rpgcodex.net/content.php?id=9453 so you're saying PoE is a top ten role playing game.

Soon PoE will be a top 5 cRPG on this site.

I think it will be somewhere between 20 and 30. Story and gameplay are both mediacore but lore, dialogs and so on excell a bit.

It would be way higher if they wouldn't cut Durance and GM content (they knew each other pre cut and it was main focus of their stories)

 

[Irenaeus]

You sound surprised Roguey, I thought you knew that Josh Sawyer doesn't want to make addictive games

The only people who'll play this game more than once are LARPers and people who are going for achievements.

Or people like me who liked the game as opposed to Obsyhaters like you and Roguey.

 

[Irenaeus]

Downside: player feels more confined

I didn't feel confined.

 

[Rake]

So you admit PoE isn't the worst RPG ever.

Moreover New Vegas is #8 on the list http://www.rpgcodex.net/content.php?id=9453 so you're saying PoE is a top ten role playing game.

Soon PoE will be a top 5 cRPG on this site.

I think it will be somewhere between 20 and 30. Story and gameplay are both mediacore but lore, dialogs and so on excell a bit.

It would be way higher if they wouldn't cut Durance and GM content (they knew each other pre cut and it was main focus of their stories)

It would be even higher if Avellone did all the companions by himself, so all of them were at un-cut Durance/Grieving Mother level.
"An Avellone level written companion requires a month to be written". If Obsidian requires a month to write Eder, Aloth or Sagani, let alone Pallegina, it is time or them to close shop

 

[Irenaeus]

I liked all companions, they were very well written. Hiravias, for instance, is awesome.

 

[Perkel]

I liked all companions, they were very well written. Hiravias, for instance, is awesome.

I share this quote. They are not bad.

Problem is that Both Durance and especially GM are awesome and if they wouldn't cut their story from game it would have probably same effect like companions from PST.

Didn't play with Hiravias.
Pelagina was ok but she didn't really have anything to say most of the time nor she bantered a lot.

I hope next time they won't do fuckup like with nua or stronghold and move resources to polish other things instead.

As they say. Either do it right or don't do it at all.

It would be interesting to have for example stronghold but only when it would be something more than moneysink.
Even in BG2 where you had like 4-5 different stronghold each of them had interesting aspects beside busywork.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

MCA vindicated again as a god of CRPG writing and storyfaggotry, he doesn't even have to put a lot of effort into it or be fully involved in the project, yet still he manages to create two of the most interesting companions in any game since Mask of the Betrayer.

Take that haters

 

[Rake]

MCA vindicated again as a god of CRPG writing and storyfaggotry, he doesn't even have to put a lot of effort into it or be fully involved in the project, yet still he manages to create two of the most interesting companions in any game since Mask of the Betrayer.

Take that haters

Despite my desision to not donate in next Obsidian's kickstarter and buy the game after it is released, i would easily give them 250$ if MCA was lead designer and Creative lead of the new Project. Bonus dollars if it's a weird, unique setting

 

[AwesomeButton]

You clearly have zero clue. Cinders of Faith has nothing to do with Searing Falls unlocking or Sagani's quest.

There are only two gates in the entire game: Caed Nua and Stormwall Gorge.

You both are pretty much clueless tho .( and both are right , fuck this sawyerism!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
You dont need Cinders of Faith to get to Searing Fall's
However !
You need a map ! That is a Quest Item for Cinder of Faiths ( How unexpected yo) for Searing Falls to appear on your map .
(You get the map from looting Admeth's Den room with huge locked chest and map is on the table)

Unless it was changed in 1.04 ( didnt install that patch ) is not the case atleast for me , i attempted to go to searing falls early and it wasnt on the map . Maybe it could be that you need to start act 2 first , but the searing falls is gated in someway .

Maybe you do need to start Act 2 first. No idea, personally.

No use arguing, I'll just start another playthrough and check it. I'm pretty sure I was unable to see Searing falls on the world map before I took Cinders of Faith. And Tigranes, Cinders of Faith requires you to go to Searing Falls to complete the quest, so it kinda has something to do with the area, actually.

 

[ArchAngel]

I noticed that not all exits on one side of map will open the next map. Don't know if it is a bug or by design.

 

[Sensuki]

It's only specific exit spots I think. I don't like how they handled area transitions of any kind.

 

[Tigranes]

No use arguing, I'll just start another playthrough and check it. I'm pretty sure I was unable to see Searing falls on the world map before I took Cinders of Faith. And Tigranes, Cinders of Faith requires you to go to Searing Falls to complete the quest, so it kinda has something to do with the area, actually.

I have a habit - in BG or anything else - where I go to one map, then I make sure to click all exits so I can worldmap it next time. Hence I always open up Searing Falls on my way from Caed Nua to Defiance Bay.

And uh, for your second part, that's obviously not what we're talking about. We're talking about the complaints about 'gating' based on incorrect facts.

 

[AwesomeButton]

I checked and yes, was wrong. Actually you can reach Searing Falls without ever going into Defiance Bay.

Well, I'm glad it's so.

 

[Space Satan]

Looks like they are doing okay so far

 

[Jedi Master Radek]

SteamSpy is unreliable. I love how when PoE was in the top 10 or 25 it was saying the number of owners didn't change daily or even decreased. When PoE is out of the top 25 it is getting more owners. Maybe it can be explained by assessing the daily number of purchases in top 10 category on steam is about 2 or 3 k, which is deep in a margin of error territory and that SteamSpy notices changes in number of owner a few days after the fact.

 

[imweasel]

SteamSpy extrapolates data from a limited number of user profiles so I would take everything they post with a grain of salt. A very large one. Their method is not too much different from VGChartz' method BTW.

They don't give us any info on the data they use, so it is very hard to say how accurate their numbers truly are. Steam has 125 million active users, extrapolation based on data from only about 1 million of these users wouldn't be very accurate. Also, an error estimate of about 5% is most definitely way too small (which in the case of PoE is ± 14,868).

 

[Infinitron]

There have been testimonies from indie developers saying that SteamSpy's data is fairly accurate. Ditto Steam Gauge before it.

 

[SniperHF]

You can use actual numbers though to spot check it. Swen said D:OS sold over half a million in September so the 800k number seems reasonable. The AoD numbers also seem pretty close to what VD has said. If it's close for a bigger and smaller game there's no reason to think it's wrong.

 

[imweasel]

There have been testimonies from indie developers saying that SteamSpy's data is fairly accurate.

Only confirmed by SteamSpy themselves. At least that is all the info on this that I could find:

"So far my friends from several game companies have confirmed that data is accurate and within the specified margin of error," Galyonkin told Polygon.
​

But SteamSpy also admits that they are often wrong:

"And that's why Steam Spy is often wrong. Not by much, but still wrong."
​

And here they tell us how they gather their data:

"I'm sampling roughly 150 people per minute," Galyonkin told Polygon. "But half of those profiles are empty. So, it's around 100,000 valid profiles per day. I've optimized the algorithm and tomorrow should have data for 150,000 valid profiles, give or take."
​

Their extrapolation is based on data gathered from about 100 to 150 thousand profiles each day... which is about 0.1% of all active Steam users (there are 125 million active steam users). At such a slow data collection rate it would take many months to get a decent estimate of any game. Like I said, take anything that SteamSpy posts with a very large grain of salt.

Swen said D:OS sold over half a million in September

Sounds about right too, seeing that D:OS was number one on Steam for about 4 to 5 weeks and in the top 10 for months.

 

[Athelas]

You seem really upset that this game isn't a sales failure.

 

[Ulrox]

You seem really upset that this game isn't a sales failure.

Actually, quite happy myself. The more PoE content Obsidian makes the better, and if they manage to fix their broken combat in the meantime I'll be even happier.

 

[tripedal]

extrapolation based on data from only about 1 million of these users wouldn't be very accurate

This is wrong. The sample size : population size ratio is irrelevant as long as the sample size is large enough (and the sampling random). A sample size of 1m is enormous. Lets say a game sells 20k copies and steam has 125m users, in a sample size of 1m you'll still expect to find 160 copies of the game, more than enough to provide a very solid estimate.

 

[imweasel]

You seem really upset that this game isn't a sales failure.

And you seem to be so upset that many people hate this garbage that you didn't even realize that this could mean that PoE could have sold substantially more than what SteamSpy states. Or maybe you are just retarded and don't get it.

This is wrong. The sample size : population size ratio is irrelevant as long as the sample size is large enough (and the sampling random). A sample size of 1m is enormous. Lets say a game sells 20k copies and steam has 125m users, in a sample size of 1m you'll still expect to find 160 copies of the game, more than enough to provide a very solid estimate.

Nope, a sample size of about 3% (which is how large it would be after one month of data collection) is ridiculously small. You can't accurately extrapolate upon that and end up with an error margin of less than 5%.

 

[Athelas]

PoE could have sold substantially more than what SteamSpy states. Or maybe you are just retarded.

Aside from the fact that that obviously wasn't the point you were making (you were saying that the game was commercially unsuccesful a page or two back), that also has nothing to do with what I said. The game still wouldn't be a sales disaster even if it sold somewhat less than the figures listed by Steamspy. I'm not sure what your point is other than 'lol, butthurt'.